Hours before the second round of the elections in which the ruling party Alvaro Delgado and the opponent Yamandú Orsi will dispute the Presidency of Uruguaynew surveys project a close definition, with an advantage of half a point or six tenths for the candidate of Wide Front.
In the face of an electoral scenario that analysts described as “uncertain” y “close“, the pollster Done published on Thursday a final estimate that places Orsi above Delgado by 0.5% y “within the margins of statistical error”.
With a total sample of 1,011 telephone respondents and a margin of error between +/- 1.6% and +/-3.1%, The poll thus places the Broad Front with 47.1% support. in front of a screening for the candidate of the National Party of 46,6 %.
According to the consulting firm’s survey, carried out between November 15 and 19, 6.3% of voters, meanwhile, would vote blank or annulled.
“It must be considered that 12.4% of people do not have a decided or strong vote towards one of the options, so the area of dispute is framed by the high percentage of voters with weak votes,” Factum warned.
At the same time, he indicated that the antecedents, both in Uruguay and in other countries, indicate “movements in short periods of time are becoming more frequent” and that these variations “They become more relevant in binary instances such as a runoff.where the movement from one option to another has a double effect.”
For its part, the consultant Cipher presented a survey that marks the advantage in favor of Orsi at 0.6%who would obtain, according to the study carried out between November 14 and 20 with a margin of +/- 3.1, 47% compared to the 46.4% awarded to Delgado in a scenario with 6.6% distributed between blank and canceled votes and “don’t know” responses.
“Orsi has 39% of firm votes, from people who say that they will surely not change their vote between now and Sunday, and another 8 points of weak votes, who could change their vote or only have a weak preference towards him. Delgado has 36.9% strong votes and 9.5% weak votes,” details the Cifra report.
The pollster Teamsmeanwhile, projected in its latest study, also published this Thursday, a greater difference of 1.8%, with 48% for Orsi and 46.2% for Delgado under a maximum margin of 2.5%.
“The differences are included within the margin of error of the measurement and we can speak of a technical tie between both candidates,” Equipos noted.
28 days after the presidential and parliamentary elections, some 2.7 million people will go to the polls on Sunday to choose between Delgado and Orsi.
After none of the eleven candidates who competed in the previous instance exceeded 50% of the votes, the two with the most votes advanced to the second round. This will take place between 8:00 a.m. and 7:30 p.m. local time (11:00 a.m. to 10:30 p.m. GMT) and it is expected that around 9:30 p.m. (00:30 GMT) the consulting firms will be able to show their first projections.
A veterinarian by profession, Delgado will try to keep the seat currently occupied by Lacalle Pou, for whom he was his Secretary of the Presidency between 2020 and 2023. Previously, he was a deputy in the period 2005-2015 and a senator between that year and 2020.
For his part, History professor Orsi will run for the Presidency after having been mayor (head of local government) of the department (province) of Canelones between 2015 and 2020. He also held the position of general secretary there between 2005 and 2015.
(With information from EFE)
