All accredited journalistic sources in Moscow agree that the triumphant Syrian opposition movement known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) managed to build a successful offensive without Iran y Russiamain partners of the Syrian government, will notice. In fact, sources based in Tehran indicate that, despite the requests for assistance made by Al Assad 20 days ago, the Iranian regime not only did not respond affirmatively, but began a rescue operation for the troops of Hezbollah deployed in Syria
The Syrian surprise can only be compared to the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on December 26, 1991. The collapse of the once world power took the entire West, including the United States, by surprise.
In the case of Syria, the event is more shocking because an internal rebellion occurred with a capacity for maneuver and tactical deployment that competes with the best Army in the world. This means that HTS had prepared this offensive with great care, accumulating weapons, recruiting troops and training shock brigades without the dictator’s intelligence. Bashar Al Assad will detect these movements.
The statements of the maximum leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, So far they seem to be encouraging since it calls for reconciliation, respect for property and announces the reestablishment of the Rule of Law. Despite these positive signs, there is a danger that the situation will degenerate into a tribal conflict like the one that followed the death of Gaddafi in Libya.
Indeed, although the HTS is the largest movement, with 30,000 fighters of greater professionalism and better equipment thanks to the fact that it controls oil extraction areas, there are smaller movements that do not necessarily share its vision on the establishment of a secular state.
Prominently among these smaller movements are Nur Eddin Zinkiwhich in the past tried to form a coalition with HTS and then separated and returned to the alliance to join the Syrian Salvation Government within the military operation Dawn of Freedom. This operation has just won victory by overthrowing Bashar Al Assad.
Jaish al Issa is another important movement within the coalition that has just released Syria. It has approximately 4,000 troops. Has received support from West. It is geographically concentrated in the extreme north of the governorate of Hama and in some parts of Latakia. These groups only share with each other the objective of liberating Syria from the ferocious dictatorship of Bashar al Assad. Because while HTS after fighting the West within the ranks of ISIS and of Al Qaeda is currently leaning towards a secular government of national understanding; the other groups prefer to continue with the thesis of the caliphate.
Hence, the euphoria with which the fall of one of the most perverse regimes has been received in the West can turn into deep mourning if the coalition that achieved that feat collapses due to the lack of consensus around the political model to be established in this new stage. And even though all statements so far point towards the construction of national unity, we must not ignore that nations interested in intervening in Syria operate in the area. One of them is Iran, which, possibly, will not refrain from penetrating Syrian territory with terrorist pickets to carry out confusion and intimidation operations.
Then there are the kurds and his alliance with USA to fight Al Assad. Israel, for its part, has some military agreements with Syria. So to achieve internal stabilization and regional peace, Syria’s salvation government will have to seal internal agreements that preserve the union of the winning coalition and regional agreements that allow it to defend itself from Iran. But this tapestry is yet to be woven. I hope the fabric is achieved because otherwise the country will enter an anarchic stage that could well send to Europa several million refugees who will enter by land crossing into Türkiye and exacerbating European nationalist sentiments within a macroeconomic framework of paralysis. Not an encouraging prospect.
