The ceasefire to stop the war between Israel and the group Lebanese Shia Hezbollahwhich came into force this Wednesday in Lebanon, is a “hard blow” and even a “defeat” for the armed formation, they indicated to EFE several analysts, who are hopeful that the agreed points will not be violated.
“Hezbollah was born between the Bekaa (east) and southern Lebanon, and evolved in these two regions to reach a powerful point. And now they send him north of the Litani (river). It’s a hard blow. It’s a huge blow. They are sending them years ago and to the past”Lebanese security and political analyst Georges Haddad told EFE.
The 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, in which the United States and France will act as guarantors, stipulates a withdrawal of the Lebanese Shiite group’s forces north of the Litani River, as well as the complete withdrawal of troops Israelis from southern Lebanon; and, finally, negotiations between both countries to delimit their border, which is currently a line drawn by the UN after the 2006 war.
For Haddad, this does not constitute a “defeat” of the Shiite group, since that word would be used in the event that Hezbollah were completely demilitarized and lost its weapons, to fall into the “rules of the Lebanese system”, a phase in which “we are not yet”.
However, the researcher in Middle East and author of the book ‘Hezbollah A Regional Armed Non-State Actor’ (Hezbollah, a non-state armed regional actor), Hadi Wahab, tells EFE that “if we look at its position before the war and what the agreement is, without a doubt its withdrawal is a defeat.”
“In addition to everything that happened in Lebanon, the losses, the destruction and the displaced, they are undoubtedly in a difficult situation,” he points out.
The leadership of Hezbollah has been decapitated by Israel, especially after just two months ago its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, was assassinated in the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahye.
Hundreds of its fighters have died since the crossfire between Hezbollah and Israel along the border broke out on October 8, 2023, a situation that escalated on September 23 with an incessant Israeli bombing campaign and, a week later , the land invasion in the south of the country.
During the two-month offensive, more than 3,100 people have been killed and more than 1.2 million have been forced to leave their homes, especially in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as in the Dahye.
Haddad It also addresses how the Shiite group has lost popularity in part of Lebanese society, including its own community, which seeks its disarmament.
And the big question is: “What happens now? “Why do you need your weapons inside the country if the Lebanese Army is in charge of protecting the border and you no longer have the right to operate in those areas?” he says.
It will be necessary to “reanalyze or reposition Hezbollah in this political sphere. With its existence as it is now and in an environment in which its objective has disappeared,” he asserts.
Another question is whether there will be any violation of the agreements during these two crucial months.
Hezbollah, whose main ally is Iran, “He has accepted the ceasefire and it would be irrational to breach it,” since that would give “a green light to (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu.” to attack Lebanon again, says Wahab.
Haddad, for his part, does not believe that they will violate the agreement if there really is “a tangible ceasefire,” also after 60 days.
Added to this, as Haddad points out, is the unknown of how the joint committee to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire will work, in which both Israel and Lebanon will report any non-compliance with these obligations to the committee and the United Nations peace mission. United Nations in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), commanded by Spain.
After the ceasefire came into force, hundreds of people have begun to return to their towns and cities in eastern and southern Lebanon, as well as to Dahye, although the Lebanese Army has asked that those who have their homes not return yet. in areas still occupied by Israel.
(With information from EFE)
