- Writer, Onur Erem
- Name the person who wrote the story, BBC World Service
Global migration continues to increase every year, and there are no signs of slowing down in the near future.
However, migrants have experienced a significant delay in recent years due to the measures taken by Donald Trump during his first administration, as well as the measures to restrict travel caused by the Corona epidemic and the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union that ended the free travel between the country and the countries of the European Union.
It is also expected that in 2025, there will be a change in the world in the two main countries where most people migrated there, namely the United States and Germany, where Donald Trump will start his second term in January, while Germany is expected to hold local elections in February, where it is expected that the parties that are serious about immigration measures will be able to win.
As World Migration Day is celebrated on December 18, we look at how things could change in 2025.
What is the current state of migration in the world?
The number of people migrating around the world has increased rapidly in the past three decades.
However, the number of people who migrate from one country to another is still small compared to the world’s population.
“We looked at the migration data for 25 years, as well as the population development data, where we found that people from developing countries are having a hard time migrating to middle and large developed countries,” said Marie. McAuliffe, head of research at the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
“There are indications that it is difficult to access the means of migration.”
“Most of the migration is between rich countries, for example like Europe,” McAuliffe said.
There is more migration between countries with free movement such as the European Union, Ecowas and Mercosur, and there is also a lot of migration between countries in East Asia and the countries of the Persian Gulf region, said McAuliffe.
There are seven million students studying abroad in 2022, a number that has tripled compared to thirty years ago.
The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria will allow more than six million Syrians to return to their country.
After the overthrow of the government, Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, and there were many Syrians on the Turkish border who were trying to return home.
However, there is no certainty about the continuation of this and the security situation in the region, due to the uncertainty about the future of the country.
How will Trump’s second term affect global migration?
The issue of immigration is important to Donald Trump and his entourage.
The United States is the country with the most immigration, and the issue was one of the issues that dominated the 2016 election.
“Building a wall” is one of Trump’s campaign slogans, where he promised to tighten security on the Mexican border to prevent illegal entry into the United States.
In his first administration, Trump did not succeed in stopping the entry of immigrants through the Mexican border, but instead, he brought a delay and it was easier for people to enter the United States illegally.
The first thing he did after taking office in January 2017 was to ban seven Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) from entering the United States, a move called the ban on Muslims enter the country.
About 2,000 nationals were ordered by Trump to be detained after they landed at the airport in the United States.
There is also a law prohibiting the granting of work permits to foreign nationals by Trump, a decision he said was made to protect the nationals.
The Trump administration has deported many people from the United States, including asylum seekers.
About 400,00 people were detained and later released after he left power in January 2021.
What is expected to happen in his second term?
One of the major promises he made during his campaign this year was the massive deportation of immigrants who entered the country illegally.
Donald Trump said that he will use the US military to achieve his goals, where he said that he will declare an illegal immigration law.
Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, said they would start by deporting a million people, but experts doubted the possibility of that.
Experts say that deporting a million immigrants from the country could cost billions of dollars.
And it is difficult to deport immigrants by implementing the work of one million people at the same time, because the action must meet legal obstacles.
What will change after the February 2025 elections in Germany?
The second most emigrated country is Germany, there is a possibility that it will have a new government after the elections in February, 2025.
In recent years, the country has eased the immigration process to recruit workers, but will that change if the extremist parties are able to retain power?
The ruling country’s government has eased immigration measures to fill the shortage of workers in the country, but Prime Minister Olaf Scholz of the ruling party, the Social Democratic Party, is the third candidate.
“Strict immigration is one of the issues that dominated the campaign of the leading parties, especially the CDU/CSU and the radical AfD,” said Victoria Rietig, head of the German Migration Observatory.
Political parties in Germany have not been critical of immigration, because of the shortage of workers in the country, according to Rietig.
More other countries
While immigration to Germany and the United States is under threat, there is a possibility that some countries will not tighten their entry and exit measures.
There is a possibility that migration between the countries of the European Union and between the countries of the Ecowas group will not face challenges.
“There is a possibility that there will continue to be migration from East Asian countries to the Persian Gulf region because of the demand for workers,” said IOM’s Marie McAuliffe.
She also shed light on the fact that there are some false information being spread about migration.
“In my opinion, the main thing that causes uncertainty about migration is the false news that is being spread.”