What role do Russia, Iran and Türkiye play in the new jihadist offensive against the Al Assad dictatorship in Syria?

Jihadists head to Aleppo via the M5 highway in the Zarbah area (Photo by Rami al SAYED / AFP)

The jihadists and their allies supported by Türkiye arrived in Aleppo, Syria’s second city, on Friday in a lightning offensive against the forces of the government backed by Iran and Russia.

The fighting is some of the deadliest in years, with 255 dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of the dead have been combatants, but the figure also includes 24 civilians, most killed in Russian airstrikes.

The offensive began on Wednesday, the same day a fragile ceasefire came into force in neighboring Lebanon between Israel and the terrorist group Hezbollahbacked by Iran.

For Friday, The jihadists and their allies had taken control of more than 50 cities and towns in the northaccording to the British-based Observatory, in the government’s biggest loss of territory in years.

They then entered the western districts of Aleppo, a city of about two million people that was Syria’s manufacturing center before the war.

“Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions… were able to enter the outskirts of the Al-Hamdaniya and New Aleppo neighborhoods… after carrying out two suicide attacks with two car bombs”said the Observatory.

Fighters capture a Syrian army tank on the M5 international highway in the Zarbah area, which was taken over by anti-government factions on November 29, 2024. (Photo by Rami al SAYED/AFP)
Fighters capture a Syrian army tank on the M5 international highway in the Zarbah area, which was taken over by anti-government factions on November 29, 2024. (Photo by Rami al SAYED/AFP)

HTS, a jihadist alliance led by the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, bombed a student residence in the city, killing four civilians, state media reported.

Syrian and Russian warplanes launched intense airstrikes on the rebel enclave around Idlib, where the jihadists are based, carrying out 23 sorties, according to the Observatory.

Army reinforcements have arrived in Aleppo, he told AFP a Syrian security official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

An army statement said troops had repelled the assault on the city and regained some positions.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicated that “more than 14,000 people, almost half of them children, have been displaced” for violence.

Sarmad, a 51-year-old Aleppo resident, told AFP he could hear “the sound of missiles and artillery shelling 24 hours a day.”

“We are afraid that war will break out and we will be displaced from our homes again”said.

Nasser Hamdo, 36, who works in a pastry shop, said he had been glued to the news since hostilities began.

On November 29, 2024, fighters burned an image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in front of a building that was taken over by jihadists in the Zarbah area, while jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups They continue their offensive in the province of Aleppo. (Photo by AAREF WATAD / AFP)
On November 29, 2024, fighters burned an image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in front of a building that was taken over by jihadists in the Zarbah area, while jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups They continue their offensive in the province of Aleppo. (Photo by AAREF WATAD / AFP)

On Thursday, jihadists and their allies cut off the highway linking Aleppo with the capital, Damascus, about 300 kilometers to the south, the Observatory said.

“We are concerned that blocking roads could cause fuel prices to rise and prevent products from reaching the city,” Hamdo said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday described the situation in Aleppo as “a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.”

He expressed his support for “government of Syria to quickly restore order in this district.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised “continued support for the Syrian government, nation and army”in a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart, Bassam al-Sabbagh, according to a statement.

The Idlib area is subject to a truce negotiated by Türkiye and Russia since 2020. The ceasefire has been repeatedly violated but has largely held.

A correspondent of the AFP in the rebel enclave saw jihadists advancing in tanks while intense exchanges of fire took place in an area just seven kilometers (a little more than four miles) from Aleppo.

A jihadist examines a rocket launcher from dictator Bashar al Assad's Army after capturing a unit of government forces (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)
A jihadist examines a rocket launcher from dictator Bashar al Assad’s Army after capturing a unit of government forces (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

The images of the AFP They showed abandoned army tanks and other military vehicles.

The correspondent said that the jihadists and their allies backed by Türkiye They received orders from a joint operations command.

The analyst Nick Heras, del New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policysaid the combatants were “trying to anticipate the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the Aleppo region.”

According to Heras, the Syrian government and its main ally, Russia, had been preparing for such a campaign.

Russia intervened in Syria in 2015turning the tide of the civil war that broke out four years earlier in favor of the government, whose forces by that time had lost control of most of the country.

There are other interests at play as well.

In addition to Russia, the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has been supported by Iran and allied militant groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Iranian-backed militias have a strong presence in the Aleppo region having provided crucial ground support to the army in its recapture of rebel-held areas of the city in 2016.

Jihadists circulate on the M5 international highway in the Zarbah area, which was taken over by anti-government fighters on November 29, 2024. (Photo by Rami al SAYED / AFP)
Jihadists circulate on the M5 international highway in the Zarbah area, which was taken over by anti-government fighters on November 29, 2024. (Photo by Rami al SAYED / AFP)

Heras said anti-government forces are “in a better position to seize and seize villages than the Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are concentrated in Lebanon.”

The director of the Observatory, Rami Abdel Rahman, said that government forces “They were not prepared at all.” for the attack.

“It is strange to see regime forces taking such heavy hits despite Russian air cover and the first signs that HTS was going to launch this operation”said Abdel Rahman.

“Were they dependent on Hezbollah, which is now occupied in Lebanon?”

(With information from AFP)

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