(From Washington, United States) The international pressure exerted by Donald Trump and his political decision to endorse the negotiations the Biden administration to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon, forced the Iranian regime to exhibit a more cautious position in the face of the current crisis in the Middle East that it started for the terrorist attack Hamas a Israel in October 2023.
From that moment on, Tehran ordered that Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis will advance on Israeli territory to achieve his physical disappearance.
But thirteen months later, due to the military offensive of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Hezbollah lost his driving y his war capacityHamas was decimated in Gaza, and the Islamic Jihad and the Houthis barely residual firepower remains in Syria and Yemen.
In this military context adds Trump’s victory in the United States elections, an electoral result that reinforced the White House’s negotiating logic in the Middle East.
Now, Tehran and its proxies assumed that Washington’s threats represent an imminent danger Trump’s decision to support the war strategy of Benjamin Netanyahu, and give the green light to Biden and his envoys in the region.
Iran started a de-escalation strategy in the face of Trump’s future international agenda, which does not consider attenuating despite the diplomatic approach tried by the ayatollahs’ regime. Elon Musk secretly met with Amir Saeed Iravani -Iran’s ambassador to the UN-, and in that rapprochement conclave both parties set their priorities.
Musk assured that Trump considers Iran its main enemy in the Middle East and that he intends to reach his inauguration – January 20 – without the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Iravani replied that the Shiite regime tries to build a diplomatic roadmap with the future Republican administration, and that shares the geopolitical objectives of ending regional confrontations.
A few days after the reserved meeting between Musk and Iravani, Tehran sent Lebanon Ali Larijani, a trusted advisor Ali Jameneireligious leader of Iran. Larijani spoke with the terrorist leaders of Hezbollah and the message was linear: it is time to to wake up a ceasefire with Israel.
The truce with Israel was an initiative presented Joe Biden y Emmanuel Macron during the UN General Assembly. Benjamin Netanyahu ignored the diplomatic movement of the presidents of the United States and France, and in exchange ordered the annulment of Hassan Nasrallahhistorical head of Hezbollah.
But this breakdown in dialogue between the United States, France and Israel was recomposed when Biden and Trump They met at the White House after the November 5 elections. In that extensive meeting, Biden informed Trump How were the negotiations in the Middle East? and the president-elect supported the efforts that were done since the Democratic administration.
That political support from Trump came through diplomatic channels to Tehran and Beirut, and then everything was on track to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which will be for 60 days and opens a new negotiation sequence in the Middle East.
In this context, Biden and Netanyahu spoke 48 hours ago to adjust the details of the truce in Lebanon and advance a roadmap that will allow the release of the 101 hostages that Hamas is holding hostages in Gaza. The Israeli premier assured Biden that is already negotiating and? little has changed in the position of the Palestinian terrorist group.
The situation in Gaza resembles a labyrinth. Hamas she is alone following the withdrawal of Hezbollah from southern Lebanon to Beirut, Iran exhibits signs of detente, and Netanyahu’s cabinet can explode if the eventual agreement in Gaza implies that Israeli troops cross the border towards their original barracks.
In Jerusalem, Gaza and Tehran it is already known that Trump pushes for a truce which should begin before his presidential inauguration in January. There is a strong diplomatic activity in the United States, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and Lebanon to get out of the labyrinth and ensure that the hostages regain their freedom.
There is a window of opportunity that we are trying to take advantage of. But the ending is open.
