(From Washington, United States) Donald Trump has known for many years Ron DermerIsrael’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, and that is why he was not surprised when he requested a closed-door meeting in Mar-a-Lago, the family condo that he uses to make his most important political decisions towards the White House.
Trump and Dermer met on Sunday, November 10 -five days after the presidential elections-, and They walked for a long time on the golf course from Mar-a-Lago. Shielded in that placid intimacy, with custody meters away, Dermer revealed to the president-elect that there was a window to close the truce between Israel and Lebanon.
Trump raised no objections and gave signs in favor of the possible ceasefire.
“Everyone is coming to the negotiating table for President Trump“, posted the future National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, on the social network X. And he added: “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos will not be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East.”
Amos Hochstein He is Joe Biden’s envoy to Lebanon. A few days before the presidential elections in the United States, Hochstein traveled to Jerusalem to meet with Netanyahu. The Israeli premier heard the proposal from Biden’s envoy, and considered that there was a high possibility to achieve a truce with Lebanon that will imply a military and political defeat of Hezbollah, the terrorist organization supported by Iran.
Hochstein’s information, backed by Netanyahu, This is what Dermer conveyed to Trump on the golf course. That is to say. Trump, Netanyahu and Biden shared the same classified data, y all three agreed in moving forward with the truce. between Israel and Lebanon.
Likewise, this reserved information had already been checked with the Lebanese premier Najib Mikati, that he was willing to close a negotiation with Israel despite pressure from Hezbollah. Mikati confirmed his political decision to Hochstein, who always travels to the Middle East with back de Biden.
At the end of September, during the United Nations General Assembly (HER)Biden y Emmanuel Macron -president of France- had announced their initiative to achieve peace in Lebanon. And Netanyahu’s response left speechless to Biden and Macron: the Israeli premier ordered to cancel Hassan Nasrallah, historical leader of Hezbollah, when talks between the parties began.
This initiative languished in the State Department and the French Foreign Ministry, until Dermer met Trump, who had already discussed the situation in the Middle East with Biden during their official meeting at the White House.
During this long conclave, both presidents had agreed that the war between Israel and Lebanon affects the regional interests of the United States, and that a common roadmap could be established. Biden start the peace process, but at the end of the 60-day truce, it will be Trump who is occupying the Oval Office.
In this context of reserved information and multiple meetings, last Monday met with Hochstein and Trump’s National Security staff to report the latest news. Hochstein toahead in that appointment that the truce was stuck in a specific demand from Netanyahu: the prime minister I wanted to have the instance to directly attack Hezbollah despite the current truce– whether he believed there was a clear and present threat against Israel.
Netanyahu’s demand was conveyed to Trump. And the president-elect supported the Israeli leader’s claim.
Next, a side letter which establishes the following rules of the game:
- If Israel considers that Hezbollah prepares a terrorist attack to its own territory or assume that has resumed arms smuggling through third countries, it must inform the Monitoring Committee that they will include -among other countries- the United States and France.
- Next, if the Monitoring Committee determines that the threat is clear and imminent, Information must be shared with the Lebanese military forces, who have the mission to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel again.
- If the Government of Lebanon resists to dismantle the Hezbollah offensive, or does not have enough firepower, Israel with the support of the United States would advance against the terrorist organization supported by Iran.
The truce began at 9:00 p.m. Tuesday (Eastern Time)and it meant launching a clockwork mechanism which implies -during sixty consecutive days– that they retire Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, they move Hezbollah terrorists north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army occupying the area that was the scene of war (see map).
“What remains of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten Israel’s security. Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and state security forces will deploy and take control of their own territory. Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt,” Biden said during the official announcement in the White House Rose Garden.
The secret plot The ceasefire also features Macron, who will be part of a truce control committee along with the leaders of the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. This committee must decide if there are Casualties of War to allow an eventual attack by Israel against Hezbollah in Israeli territory.
Lebanon ended up accepting the conditions of the ceasefire due to Macron’s presence.
And going forward there will be a reconstruction agenda that will place France in a predominant role. Not only because of investments and political decisions, but also because it will be necessary support the Lebanese army on the ground, which exhibits limited military power compared to Hezbollah’s war capacity.
Biden and Trump defined that formally there will be no US troops in the areas that Israel and the terrorist organization will abandon, but military and civilian advisors from the Pentagon will operate from the American embassy in Beirut to prevent a simple incident from transforming the truce in smoke and ashes.
When he reaches the White House, Trump will define if you adhere to the letter of this agreement. Or write another with your own words.
