The Trump effect has already begun. In Venezuela, the Maduro dictatorship is releasing political prisoners, in Nicaragua Ortega is rapidly banishing priests and opponents, while in Cuba they are redoubling repression and surveillance. The panic is total.
Maduro is afraid. He has congratulated Trump on his landslide victory, praised the civility of the United States and implored dialogue with his archenemy. With almost two thousand political prisoners, Chávez’s anointed begs for clemency, but does not abandon power.
Dictators don’t learn. Maduro has listened to the same Washington analysts and tankers who predicted Trump’s defeat. These experts swear that there will be negotiation because Trump, according to them, likes strong men like Maduro.
Chavismo wants to repeat the formula. Just as they lifted sanctions, freed his drug trafficker nephews and gave Alex Saab on a silver platter, now they are looking for a new “deal” with Trump. They are wrong. Times have changed and there is a new sheriff in town.
Daniel Ortega is also in panic mode. Nicaragua is a police state. Espionage activity has been redoubled at all levels. In and out of state. They have begun to banish priests, musicians and anyone who says this is mine.
Ortega and his fear of Marco Rubio. In 2018, during the April rebellion, Foreign Minister Denis Moncada and Ambassador Francisco Campbell arrived on their knees to Senator Rubio’s office. They swore with their hands and feet that they wanted dialogue and peace. In the end Ortega lied. He never complied.
Cuba responds to fear with repression. The regime, with 1,200 political prisoners and 65 years in power, knows that bitter days are coming. The Trump administration and particularly its announced Secretary of State, know the regime and They will have no mercy.
Cuba in darkness and repression. The state cannot manage industry or basic services. They have destroyed agriculture and fishing. The only excuse continues to be an international blockade that has not existed for a long time and in which no one believes anymore.
Michael Waltz, Republican Congressman from Florida and Senator Marco Rubio, are the two nightmares of the dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Waltz at the National Security Council and Rubio at the State Department will bring the issue of dictatorships to Trump’s desk in the West Wing.
The relationship of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela with Iran, Russia and China are a threat to the national security of the United States. The new administration does not support the policy of soft diplomacy, multilateralism or sanctions easing. That’s over.
“These dictatorships, those of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, do not survive four years of Trump,” Congressman Mario Díaz Balart rightly said. However, it will be the first two years that guarantee the full support of the Senate and Congress to guarantee the end of communist tyrannies.
The opponents of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela Approaches with the Trump administration have already begun. They are convinced that perhaps this is the last opportunity to get out of dictatorships. The time is right and so is the leadership. Let’s get to work.
*The author is an exiled journalist, former ambassador to the OAS and former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps (FK). Former student of the Security and Defense seminar at the National Defense University and the Leadership course at Harvard and HarvardX.
