(From Washington, United States) The triumph of Yamandú Orsi in the presidential elections of Uruguay finishes assigning the puzzle pieces what Donald Trump must put together in Latin America, a geopolitical scenario that exhibits allies of the next Republican administration, dictatorships of a Marxist nature and a block of countries that will have zigzag diplomatic relations with the United States due to its ties with China, Russia and Iran.
Trump’s regional agenda aims to end the influence from China, force an institutional change in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, facilitate government management in Argentina, Paraguay, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, and establish specific political agreements with Brazil and Mexico.
Facing global ambitions of Xi Jinping, the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East, Latin America will not be a priority for the White House.
However, Trump appointed Marco Rubio as Secretary of Statea descendant of Cuban exiles who will not miss the historic opportunity: it is the first time that the head of American diplomacy know -really- What happens from Mexico City to Santiago de Chile.
The dictators Nicolás Maduro, Daniel Ortega y Miguel Diaz-Canel have transformed Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba into proxies from China, Russia and Iran. Furthermore, these authoritarian leaders exercise a state control about the opposition violate all human rights established by the United Nations (HER) and the Organization of American States (OAS).
Trump plans a roadmap that will imply greater economic and financial sanctions on Havana, Managua and Caracas, instead of establishing certain agreements from the White House as executed Joe Biden without result. Maduro did fraud contra Edmundo González Urrutia y María Corina Machado, and Biden barely had a diplomatic response that the Venezuelan regime treated as a tropical rain.
If there was an order of priority to Trump y Secretary Rubio, Maduro heads the list and behind him Díaz-Canel, who deploys his intelligence apparatus in Venezuela to capture and torture members of the opposition, and know also to members of the Armed Forces who They already propose a democratic transition ordered.
Unlike the political cold that will apply to Caribbean dictatorships, the Republican administration plans promote a privileged relationship con Javier Miley, Santiago Pena, Luis Abinader y Nayib Bukele. This political relationship it will not be linear –Trump foresees a protectionist agenda which can affect regional exports to the United States -, but will aim to grant certain benefits to Argentina, Paraguay, Dominican Republic and El Salvador.
In this context, Milei participated in a dinner with Trump in Sea -to- Lakeand the Paraguayan foreign minister Ruben Ramirez Lezcano He was with the president-elect in his condo, before leaving for Taiwan. Milei negotiate a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (FMI)and President Peña supports his chancellor Ramírez as candidate for Secretary General of the OAS.
Trump will support Milei and Peña to achieve their political objectives. If you look at the entire regional puzzle that the future president of the United States will have to put together, Argentina and Paraguay are the only two pieces with own volume what they will align to Trump’s global agenda.
Brazil and Mexico lead a block of nations that due to their ideological perspective and their strategic agreements with China, Russia and Iran will be refractory to Trump’s foreign policy. Those countries are Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Peru y certain Caribbean islands who need Venezuela’s oil and Cuba’s military intelligence.
From this perspective, Trump must take extremeto Rubio’s diplomatic capacity. Lula da Silva is the president of the most important country in the region, while Claudia Sheinbaum He became president of Mexico with a notable victory in the general elections.
Mexico is a privileged business partner from the United States -along with Canada-, and Brazil has sufficient political capacity to condition Trump’s international agenda. Lula plays on par with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putinand Sheinbaum will demand the Republican government to establish a common policy regarding undocumented immigrants and the Fentanyl crisis.
Rubio will announce its team for Latin America in the coming weeks, following his approval hearing as Secretary of State in the Senate. Has a team of experts who has accompanied him for years in his parliamentary activity. Unlike other heads of American diplomacy -both Republicans and Democrats-, Rubio knows the region and speaks the same language.
