The document, four years old, has a dull and bureaucratic title –Basic principles of state policy on nuclear deterrence-, but its content is chillingespecially with its more recent revisions.
Better known as the Russian nuclear doctrine the renewed version that was signed on Tuesday by the president Vladimir Putin details the circumstances that allow it to use Moscow’s atomic arsenal, the largest in the world.
This new version lowers the threshold and gives you that option in response even to a conventional attack backed by a nuclear power. That could include Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to attack Russian territory, which Moscow says occurred Tuesday when six projectiles hit the Bryansk region.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, He emphasized that such attacks could potentially be a trigger for a nuclear response according to the revised document.
Putin signed the first version in 2020 and approved the latest version on Tuesday, according to the Kremlin. It describes when Russia could resort to its atomic arsenal.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Putin and other Kremlin voices They have frequently threatened the West with their nuclear arsenal. But that has not deterred kyiv’s allies from giving it billions of dollars in advanced weapons, some of which have reached Russian soil.
The revised document describes nuclear weapons as “a means of deterrence”, pointing out that its use is an “extreme and obligatory measure.” It declares that Russia “takes all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and avoid the aggravation of interstate relations that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones.”
This nuclear deterrence aims to safeguard the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of the State”, deter a potential aggressor or, “in the event of a military conflict, prevent an escalation of hostilities and stop them under conditions acceptable to the Russian Federation,” it says. the document.
“Nuclear deterrence aims to ensure that any potential adversary realizes the inevitability of retaliation in case of aggression against Russia and its allies,” he says.
Although it is formulated broadly to avoid a firm commitment on the use of nuclear weapons and to keep the West guessing Moscow’s answer, The modernized version details the conditions under which Putin could use a nuclear option in response to a conventional attack.
The changes to the doctrine have been in the works for months and it is no coincidence that the announcement of a new version on Tuesday comes two days after Washington’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack targets in Russia. The American president, Joe Bidenhas been weighing the risks of such an escalation for months.
The doctrine says Moscow could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction” against Russia or its allies, as well as “in case of aggression” against Russia and Belarus with conventional weapons that threaten “their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity.”
Any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear power with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as its “joint attack” against Russia, the document says.
He adds that nuclear weapons could be used in the following scenarios:
— If reliable information is received about the ballistic missile launch against the territory of Russia or its allies.
– Yes nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction They impact the territory of Russia or its allies, or are used to attack Russian military units or facilities abroad.
—If an enemy hit critically important Russian government or military facilities could undermine the ability to respond to a nuclear attack.
— If aggression occurs against Russia or Belarus with conventional weapons that pose a critical threat for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
— If reliable information is received about the takeoff or launch of strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic flying vehicles or others and their crossing of the Russian border.
The president can inform military and political leaders of other countries or international organizations “about the willingness to use nuclear weapons” or that he has already decided to use them.
Even before signing the renewed doctrine, Putin warned the United States and its NATO allies not to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the West, saying that would put Russia and NATO at war.
Asked on Tuesday whether such a Ukrainian attack could trigger a nuclear response, Peskov responded affirmatively. He noted the doctrine’s provision that opens the door after a conventional attack that poses critical threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Peskov also highlighted the new section of the doctrine that describes an attack by any country supported by a nuclear power as its joint aggression against Russia.
Tatiana Stanovaof the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center, noted that Peskov’s comment marked the first time that the Kremlin explicitly recognized “the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to attacks on Russian territory with long-range missiles.”
“In short, Peskov openly admits that The Kremlin is currently considering the possibility of a nuclear attack“, said.
While the doctrine provides for a possible nuclear response by Russia, it is broadly formulated to avoid a firm commitment to using nuclear weapons and keep Putin’s options open.
According to a U.S. National Security Council official who was not authorized to comment publicly and requested anonymity, The United States has not seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture. As a result, the Biden administration “has seen no reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russia’s statements today,” the official added.
Jack Watlingsenior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK defense and security think tank, said the use of long-range Western missiles “certainly not” will trigger Moscow’s nuclear response as some in the West feared.
But he added that “Russia can escalate in a variety of ways to impose costs on the West, from submarine sabotage to employing middlemen to harass trade in Bab el-Mandeb,” a strait off the Red Sea where attacks on ships have been blamed. to Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
The vice president of the Russian Security Council, chaired by Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, was even more forceful: Ukraine’s use of NATO missiles to attack Russian territory “could be classified as an attack by the bloc’s countries against Russia,” he stated.
“In such a scenario, Russia reserves the right to retaliate with weapons of mass destruction against kyiv and key NATO facilitieswherever they are located,” he stated. “This would be equivalent to a Third World War.”
Stanovaya said that “the current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate” and marks “an extraordinarily dangerous juncture.”
“Putin could try to present the West with two clear options: ‘Do they want a nuclear war? They will have it’ or ‘Let’s end this war on the terms Russia establishes’”, he published in X.
That wouldn’t interfere with any potential peace initiative, but it could bolster the president-elect’s argument. Donald Trump in favor of a direct dialogue with Putin, he said.
“At the same time, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst for escalation and, at the same time, could deter Ukraine from continuing to use long-range missiles,” Stanovaya added.
(With information from AP)
