Less than three months after his appointment, the minority government of Michel Barnier seems to be on its way to its end. On December 2, the French Prime Minister used a emergency provision of the constitution, known as 49.3, to force parliament to approve the part of its budget allocated to social security without voting. This led the left alliance to present a motion of censurethat the far-right party of Marine Le PenNational Group (RN), immediately said it would support. That vote is expected to take place on December 4. Together, an unholy alliance of the left and the far right have the parliamentary numbers necessary to bring down the government.
Until the last moment, the conservative Barnier, who successfully achieved the agreement of the European Union about him Brexittried to find the necessary compromises to carry out this part of the budget. It is part of a broader package of 60,000 million euros ($63 billion) of tax increases and spending cuts, designed to reduce the deficit of 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5% next year.
The prime minister gave ground to some demands made by Le Pen’s RN, notably canceling the tax increases to electricity bills and cuts to medical reimbursements. But he resisted his latest request, to overturn a planned delay in raising state pensions in line with inflation. For the RN, which with its friends has 140 seats in the 577-seat lower house and is enjoying its moment as a key parliamentary force, Barnier’s concessions were not enough. “The French have had enough,” declared Le Pen.
France is now preparing for a situation that most of its politicians have never experienced. The last time the National Assembly overthrew a government was in 1962.
“The French will not forgive us if we put individual interests ahead of those of the nation“Barnier pleaded with the deputies in the chamber. However, his words are likely to fall on deaf ears. Having so far tried to demonstrate that the RN is not a protest party but a government in waiting, Le Pen is under new pressure from her voters and the courts. In a ruling that will be handed down next March in a case related to the misuse of European Parliament fundscould be declared ineligible to run for public office for five years. “She doesn’t want to be the architect of chaos,” says an RN deputy, “but our base will not understand if she is the one who saves Barnier’s skin.”
If, as seems likely now, the government falls this week, Barnier and his ministers could remain in office as caretakers, but with him the entire budget would fall. For the State to continue functioning, it could use special provisions to extend the 2024 budget measures until 2025, without adjustments for inflation. The task of trying to pass a new budget in 2025 would then pass to a new government. Uncertainty about France’s ability to put its affairs in order public finances It is worrying the markets. On December 2, the spread of French 10-year sovereign bonds over the German benchmark 10-year bond widened slightly to 0.88 percentage points, close to its highest level since 2012.
As for the president Emmanuel Macronif he loses his third prime minister in a year, he will be back to where he was in July, after hastily calling and lose early legislative elections: looking for someone who can govern with a deadlocked parliament. He cannot call new parliamentary elections until July next year.
The president could reappoint Barnier, although in that case a new vote of confidence would undoubtedly occur soon. Or he could instead look for a center-left figure who could command broader support. The left alliance, which ranges from the extreme Trotskyist left to the moderate social democratic left, is the largest bloc in parliament, although it is also far from the majority. Some figures on the Macronist side think that a moderate socialist could secure the support of the center and center-right. Either way, the options don’t look good, and France is bracing for another period of political instability at the worst possible time.
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