Iran, facing an altered security landscape, sees its influence on Middle East collapses after the dismissal of Bashar al-Assad as president of Syriaweakening its national defense strategy. The departure of Assad, a key piece in the so-called “axis of resistance” of Tehranbecame a significant blow, especially at a time when the president-elect Donald Trump promises to increase pressure on Iran. The fall of Assad is seen by Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group such as the destruction of the last line of Iranian defense.
With the departure of AsadIran loses the only allied state that guaranteed it land access to Hezbollahits powerful non-state ally in Lebanon. This change occurs in a context where Israel has devastated the Hamasits main Palestinian ally, since an initial attack on October 7 last year. Starting in September, Israel increased his offensive, resulting in the elimination of most of the leaders of Hezbollahforcing his remaining commanders into hiding.
The feeling of disadvantage increases for Iran, contrasting with the opportunity that arose after the US invasion of Irak in 2003. Although this previous situation allowed Iran to expand its influence, the loss of Assad represents a setback, according to the original article.
The network of militias and alliances that Tehran built over decades with billions of dollars in investments is in danger. At this juncture, it not only faces the decline of its international prestige, but also a complicated internal situation with an aging clerical leadership and whose supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneiwill approach 86 next year. Meanwhile, Israel He feels strengthened in the face of an Iran that sees its internal popularity diminished.
The collapse of the regime Asad was seen as a significant “strategic coup” for Iransaid Norman Roule, a former US intelligence official, after Israel killed a generation of US commanders. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah in Syria. This panorama is worsened by the elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah as direct threats to Israelwhich reduced Iran’s previous deterrence against potential Israeli attacks.
On another note, a US intelligence report warned of the growing risk that Iran may decide to build a nuclear bomb. The UN nuclear agency announced that Iran initiated a significant expansion in the production of highly enriched uranium and warned that without new monitoring agreements, ensuring that weapons-grade uranium is not produced could become difficult.
Since the return to power of Trump, Iran has shown a willingness to talk about its nuclear enrichment activities, but has not indicated openness to negotiate about its missile program or support for militias in the region. These issues were a priority for Trump in his first term, who insisted on including them in any nuclear talks.
In recent months, Iranian officials have reconsidered the supreme leader’s two-decade-old promise, Ali Khameneiof not acquiring weapons of mass destruction, in a context where recent setbacks have encouraged open discussions about increasing its nuclear efforts to reestablish some deterrence.
However, in a context where Israeli attacks have hit military facilities in Iran and destroyed air defense systems provided by Russiathe panorama becomes complicated. Iran faces the possibility of accelerating its nuclear program in response to these pressures.
Iranaccording to Foad Izadi of the University of Tehran, continues to be a declared adversary of Israel and a staunch defender of the Palestinian cause. This position differentiates it as the only Muslim state in the Middle East that openly confronts these positions. In this context, militias loyal to Iran, mainly Shiites, play a relevant role and exceed 100,000 combatants in the region, as detailed by Roule, a former US intelligence official. This number is supplemented by elite Iranian forces operating under hardline leaders.
Following its “advanced defense” strategy, Iran has maintained allies in fragmented territories such as Syriawhere his ties exceed the merely political ones with the regime of Assad. Since Syria became the first Arab state to recognize the Islamic Republic in 1979, both governments have been strategically allied. Renad Mansour, project director at the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, points out that with the weakening of other allies such as Hezbollah and HamasIran now focuses its attention on Irak. This neighboring country has become crucial not only as an economic conduit, particularly for sanctions evasion, but also as an essential security front.
After the US invasion of 2003, Iran established a network of Shiite militias in Iraq, thus extending its political and military influence. Many Syrian forces linked to Iran have been forced to retreat into Iraq due to advancing rebel forces. According to Mansourthe Iranian approach in Iraq responds to the need to keep conflicts as far away from its own territory as possible. However, the history of political alignments in the region suggests that, regardless of Syria’s future, Iran could maintain its influence in this area.
Rolled highlights the sustained power of movements like the Houthis in Yemen, suggesting that even if Hezbollah and Hamas suffer temporary setbacks, they have the potential to bounce back. The durability of Iran’s power structures will require a regional and international plan to prevent it from reestablishing its logistical and training networks with its remaining allies.
