A little over a year ago, China gave a warm welcome to Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit to the country, offering the former Syrian leader a rare break from years of international isolation since the start of a civil war in 2011.
While the couple attended the Asian Games, President Xi Jinping vowed to support Assad in his “opposition to external interference” and in the reconstruction of Syriawhile his wife Asma was feted in the Chinese media.
But the abrupt end of the authoritarian leader’s regime, so explicitly supported by Xi last year, has dealt a blow. hard blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East and has revealed the limits of its strategy in the region, according to analysts.
A coalition of rebels took over on Sunday Damascusthe capital of Syriaafter a lightning offensive that overthrew the Assad regime and ended his family’s 50-year dynasty.
“China’s ability to influence political outcomes in the region has been greatly exaggerated”says Jonathan Fulton, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
While the collapse of the Assad regime was seen as reducing the influence in the Arab world of his key supporters, Iran y Russiawas also a blow to China’s global ambitions, Fulton said.
“Much of what China has been doing internationally has depended on support with those countries, and its inability to shore up its largest partner in the Middle East speaks volumes about its ability to do much beyond the region.”
After China mediated a agreement between their former rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iranin 2023, Chinese media praised the Beijing’s rising profile in a neighborhood long dominated by Washington.
Wang Yihead of Chinese diplomacy, stated that the country would play a constructive role in managing global “hotspots.”
China also negotiated a truce between Fatah, Hamas and other Palestinian factions rivals at the beginning of the year and has made repeated calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.
However, despite bringing Middle East leaders to Beijing and rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” by its envoy to the region, Zhai Jun, in the months since then, the Palestinians have not formed a unity government and The conflict in Gaza continues.
“The sudden fall of Assad is not a scenario China wants to see,” said Fan Hongda, a Middle East expert at Shanghai University of International Studies. “China prefers a more Middle East stable and independentsince the chaos or one pro-American orientation in the region does not align with the China’s interests”.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s response to Assad’s fall has been low-key, focusing on the safety of Chinese citizens and calling for a “political solution” to restore stability in Syria as soon as possible.
The spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, seemed to leave a loophole for compromise with the future government on Monday: “China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all the Syrian people”he declared.
Chinese experts and diplomats say that Beijing will bide its time before recognizing the new Damascus government.
You could use your experience and financial capacity to support the reconstructionbut your commitments are likely to be limited because China has tried to minimize financial risks abroad in recent years.
Syria joined the emblematic Iniciativa Belt and Road in 2022, but since then there have been no significant investments by Chinese companies, partly due to sanctions.
China “is not really capable of replace West as economic, diplomatic or military partner in the region”says Bill Figueroa, associate professor at the University of Groningen and expert on China-Middle East relations.
“China in 2024 has much less money than China in 2013-2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa said. There is “an obvious reassessment in the direction of safer investments and the reducing China risks in general,” he added.
(With information from Reuters)
