Cuba could face in 2024 a new contraction of his Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to two hurricanesof the earthquakes recent and a persistent energy crisisas announced this Thursday by the Cuban dictatorship.
During a press conference, the Minister of Economy, Joaquín Alonso Vázquezwarned that these events have “unquestionably” impacted the national economy, which was already showing signs of weakness despite slight improvements in indicators such as the fiscal deficit.
Alonso pointed out that, under current circumstances, GDP “should not grow” in 2024, although he clarified that the estimates remain preliminary. If this forecast is confirmed, it would be the second consecutive drop in the Cuban GDP, after a contraction of the 1.9% in 2023. Even so, the island’s GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels, due to a combination of the health crisis, the tightening of US sanctions and internal economic decisions.
According to Alonso, one of the critical factors is the lack of stable fuel supply and the interruption of electricity in a large part of the country, which directly impacts the economic dynamics.
“The economic development of a country depends largely on energy, and we have had electrical problems throughout the year,” explained the minister, who also mentioned the deficiencies in the supply of electricity. Gasoline y diesel.
The minister cited a report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) which predicts a drop in Cuban GDP of 0.4% for this year. Although he admitted not knowing the details of this methodology, he stated that “you don’t have to do many studies” to predict a similar result.
On the other hand, the 44% of the territory of Cuba faces simultaneous blackouts during the afternoon-night of this Thursday, in a new day marked by high rates of electrical interruptions. This situation reflects the energy crisis that currently affects the country.
The affectation rate This Thursday’s electricity rate is once again among the highest since the general blackout that occurred a week ago, caused by the winds of the Hurricane Rafael passing through the west of Cubaaccording to the daily report of the state company Unión Eléctrica (UNE).
Experts point out that the current energy crisis in Cuba is due to the lack of fuel and the breakdowns in the obsolete thermoelectric plants of the country, affected by a serious maintenance and investment deficit.
Since the end of August, the energy crisis in Cuba has gotten worse, with two total blackouts in the last month: the first caused by a fuel shortage and a breakdown in the main thermoelectric of the country. Furthermore, the predicted deficit rate has remained close to 50%, which implies that five out of ten light bulbs have remained off simultaneously.
The latest report of the Electrical Union (UNE) indicates that six of the twenty generation units distributed in the seven thermoelectric plants operations of Cuba They are damaged.
The Electrical Union (UNE)entity attached to Ministry of Energy and Minesprojects for tonight’s afternoon a maximum electrical generation capacity of 1,760 MW, compared to a demand estimated 3,020 MW. This gap will generate a deficit of 1,260 MW, while the real affectationthat is, the circuits that will be disconnected, will reach 1,330 MW during the hours of highest energy consumption.
For four years, Cuba has been going through a serious crisis marked by daily blackouts, lack of basic products such as food, medicine and fuel, inflation that has tripled prices, the advance of dollarization and an unprecedented mass migration.
