Images of advanced planes flying at low altitude on Thursday in China have surprised analysts, who say they could mark the maiden flights of sixth generation fighter aircraftrepresenting an important advance for the country’s Army.
Photos and videos that originated on Chinese social media platforms and were republished on X on Thursday show large triangular planes performing wide slow turns at very low altitude. The images appear to show two different planes, one smaller than the other, both with a stealthy, tailless design that suggests they rely on advanced computer technology to be piloted.
Videos of the planes trended Friday on Weibo, a Chinese social media site similar to X, although their origin is unclear, and The Washington Post could not verify their authenticity. In a video, the large fighter jet appears to be accompanied by the fifth-generation J-20China’s current most advanced operational fighter.
Testing of two new advanced aircraft in broad daylight is also highly unusual, analysts say, and could indicate that Beijing is purposely making a show of force.
This comes amid uncertainty over the future of the United States’ sixth-generation fighter initiative, known as the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program. The projected costs of each of the future U.S. aircraft are estimated to reach hundreds of millions of dollars, and the Air Force decided in November to defer key decisions on the direction of the project to the future Trump administration.
China’s demonstration of new military technology also follows criticism from Elon Muskwho President-elect Donald Trump has tasked with advising on budget cuts, regarding the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet program, which has faced technological problems and cost overruns. Musk called F-35 builders Lockheed Martin “idiots” and suggested that manned fighter jets should be replaced by drones.
“It seems quite intentional that (the Chinese military) wanted us to see this plane flying. “Personally, I think the timing of this is really curious because they know about this debate and it almost seems designed to influence that debate,” he said. Kelly Griecosenior fellow at the Stimson Center.
Amid uncertainty over the manned aircraft project, Pentagon officials have said they want to create a “hell” of unmanned drones to defend Taiwan. “(China) might be more concerned about the U.S. Air Force heading in that direction,” Grieco said.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on the apparent test flights. China’s Defense Ministry and state media did not publish details of the flights, which Chinese netizens noted coincided with Mao Zedong’s birthday.
There is no set pattern for how Beijing reveals new military advances, although It often occurs on dates that mark national anniversaries. The J-20’s maiden flight in 2011 coincided with a visit by then-US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing, and was widely seen as an effort by China to signal its military might.
Chinese media reported that the test flights took place around 4 p.m. Thursday at the Huangtianba air base near Chengdu, home to the airfields of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, a subsidiary of a state-owned conglomerate tasked with designing and manufacturing some of the country’s most advanced fighter jets, including the J-20.
It has long been known that Beijing, together with the United States and other great powers, is developing what is called sixth generation fighter capabilities. These cover a range of possible innovations, including AI-powered autonomy, hypersonic speed, advanced electronic warfare systems and next-level stealth technologyall of which could give Beijing an advantage in a potential conflict around Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Initial images of the new planes offer no concrete evidence of such capabilities. However, analysts note that the designs hint at a significant advance over the country’s fifth-generation fighters, including the Chengdu J-20, which has undergone several major upgrades over the past decade.
It is unclear from the images whether any of the test aircraft would be a successor to that model. The J-20 is designed as a long-range stealth fighter and has been deployed in increasingly aggressive exercises surrounding the autonomous island of Taiwan. China has also produced a smaller fifth-generation stealth aircraft called the J-35, which has not yet been used in major exercises but is expected to be deployed for short-range operations from aircraft carriers in the coming years.
A maiden test flight of a sixth-generation aircraft would underscore the accelerated pace of China’s ambitious efforts to modernize its military.
In an annual report to Congress released this month, the Pentagon noted that Beijing is rapidly closing the gap with the United States in advanced airpower, making significant advances in unmanned aircraft and increasing the proportion of advanced fighter jets in its ranks.
Wider production of a sixth-generation Chinese jet could still be many years away. Mass production of the fifth-generation J-20 began only in 2017, according to Chinese media reports. The Pentagon estimates that most of China’s fighters, about 1,300 out of a total of 1,900, are fourth-generation aircraft.
China continues to move forward with its goal of building a “world-class military” by mid-century, aiming to match or surpass the United States despite recent difficulties.
A wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign has involved key army units over the past 18 months, including the disappearance of two senior defense ministers. The campaign initially targeted the PLA Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s strategic missile systems, but has since expanded.
This week, two more generals were removed from key positions overseeing critical aspects of China’s military strategy in the South China Sea army and navy.
© 2024, The Washington Post.
