As forces opposed to Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad make rapid and significant advances in Syria, Türkiye is closely watching any repercussions.
Türkiye, which shares a 911-kilometer border with Syria, has been a main support of opposition groups seeking to overthrow Assad since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. The conflict led to an influx of refugees and Türkiye is now home to 3 million Syrians.
Turkish authorities have flatly rejected claims of any involvement in the offensive which is being led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as well as a coalition of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
However, analysts believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Türkiye’s long-term goals, could not have moved forward without Ankara’s consent. This has allowed Turkey to counter Kurdish forces in Syria allied with its bitter enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday appeared to blame his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al Assad for recent events.
“We appealed to Assad. We said, ‘Come, let’s meet, let’s determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we could not get a positive response from Assad,” Erdogan said. “These problematic marches that continue throughout the region are not what we want.”
Here’s a look at Türkiye’s position, how the outbreak could serve the country’s goals, and possible risks ahead:
Türkiye has declared its support for Syria’s territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border.
Ankara has carried out several incursions into Syria since 2016 with the aim of repelling the Islamic State group or Kurdish militiamen. and create a buffer zone along its border, and it now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.
Türkiye has called for a reduction in tensions and reconciliation between Syria’s government and the opposition. He has engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, including talks with Assad’s main supporters, Russia and Iran.
Recently, Ankara has sought reconciliation with Assad to mitigate the threat to Türkiye from Kurdish militias and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad has rejected Türkiye’s overtures.
Turkish authorities have flatly rejected claims of involvement in the anti-government offensive, expressing their opposition to developments that are increasing instability in the region.
“All statements claiming that Türkiye caused or that Türkiye supported this are false. “They are all lies,” said Omer Celik, spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling party. “What we want in Syria is in no way an increase in violence or fighting.”
Analysts consider, however, that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without the green light from Türkiye. Despite designating HTS as a terrorist organization, Türkiye is believed to exert significant influence over the group.
Turkish officials say Ankara halted the offensive for months. Opposition forces eventually proceeded with the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-controlled areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Türkiye to de-escalate the conflict.
The offensive was initially intended to be limited, officials said, but was expanded after Syrian government forces began withdrawing from their positions.
Gonul Tol, director of the Turkish Program at the US-based Middle East Institute, says that Ankara does not have full control over HTS, but has provided indirect support, allowing aid trucks to pass into the HTS stronghold in Idlib. The agreement between Türkiye, Russia and Iran also helped the group prosper, Tol explained.
The offensive could pose several risks for Türkiye, including stoking tensions with supporters in Syria, Iran and Russia. NATO member Turkey has sought to balance close relations with both Ukraine and Russia against Moscow’s large-scale invasion of its southern neighbor.
Rising instability in Syria could send a new wave of refugees towards the Turkish border.
Tol, who is the author of a book on Türkiye and Syria, highlighted that Although Russia is busy with the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will not be willing to see Assad fall.
“I doubt Russia is going to give up Assad,” Tol said. “Syria is too important for Putin.”
The insurgents’ offensive has raised hopes that Türkiye can achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, including secure its southern borders and facilitate the safe return of Syrian refugees.
Since 2022, Türkiye has sought to normalize relations with Syria. However, Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkey maintains that it cannot withdraw as long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.
Analysts believe that The offensive could pressure Assad to reconcile with Türkiye and enter into negotiations with the Syrian opposition.
Furthermore, it could allow Turkey to push the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the YPG, away from its borders. Despite the YPG’s alliance with the United States against the Islamic State group, Türkiye considers them a terrorist organization.
Recently, another opposition force, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The leader of Türkiye’s nationalist party, an ally of Erdogan, has called for attacking the Kurdish town of Manbij next.
There is also hope for that opposition control of Aleppo encourages refugees to returnwith Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya noting that approximately 40% of Syrian refugees in Türkiye are from Aleppo.
However, Tol added that Türkiye may not be able to control HTS as it moves forward and pursues its own interests.
“The question is, will HTS listen to Erdogan after gaining so much ground?”Tol said. “Does Türkiye really want a jihadist organization to govern a neighboring country?”
By Suzan Fraser (AP)
