In the heart of Caribbeana group of isolated rains and storms evolved rapidly, becoming a phenomenon that threatens to leave significant traces along its path. Within days, meteorologists Accuweather They identified the activity as a tormenta tropicalanticipating its intensification as it approached the Central American coast. The storm, which has been provisionally named Saracould become a hurricane if it manages to stay over warm waters, which alerts the state of Florida.
These types of phenomena, which begin as tropical storms, usually progress through cycles of intensification and weakening before becoming larger threats. Despite its proximity to land, where in this case the proximity to Nicaragua y Honduras could slow down its initial intensification, the lack of wind shear and high ocean temperatures (above 26 °C) represent optimal conditions for the storm to strengthen.
As Sara move west in the Caribbeanthe threats of torrential rains and flooding increase considerably for Central American countries. According to the forecast of Accuweatherextremely intense rainfall is expected in areas of northern Honduras and the northeast of Nicaraguawhich could receive between 300 and 450 millimeters of rain in just two to three days.
These amounts represent an elevated risk of flash flooding and landslides, events that could endanger lives and severely impact vulnerable communities in both nations.
The magnitude of the rains could even exceed the forecast in specific points, where the index places a possible maximum of 1,200 mm. In contexts of mountainous terrain such as that of Honduras y Nicaraguasuch volumes of rainfall can quickly lead to catastrophic disasters, especially if the storm slows or stalls over the region, extending the time of its effects.
The situation is particularly delicate given the history of similar events in the past, such as the devastating impact of the Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which caused more than 10,000 deaths in Central America due to rainfall of up to 1,200 mm.
The RealImpact™ Hurricane Scale of Accuweather awarded a classification of 4 for the Central American region, due to the high risk of excessive rains and the potential economic and human losses in densely populated areas or poorly prepared for a phenomenon of this magnitude.
While Sara is moving through the Caribbean, weather models indicate several possible scenarios that could take it toward the Gulf of Mexico and, eventually, an impact on the coast of Florida. This possible route will depend on several factors, including your ability to cross the mountainous areas of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula without losing too much strength.
According to experts, the system faces certain natural obstacles that could reduce its chances of reaching hurricane intensity upon entering Gulf waters.
One of the decisive factors in the trajectory of Sara is the position of a high pressure system located on the southeast coast of USAwhich could direct the storm north and east. However, the timing and intensity of a cold front scheduled for next week in the Gulf of Mexico will also influence its route.
This cold front could “absorb” or weaken Sara before it reaches Florida. According to Brian McNoldyresearcher of the University of Miamithe advance of the cold front is “good news for Florida” if it manages to disintegrate the system at its entrance to the Gulf.
However, if Sara survives its passage over land and the cold front does not sufficiently affect its advance, it could reach the coasts of Florida with storm or hurricane intensity, becoming the fourth storm to make landfall in the state so far this year, a fact that would surpass the record of three impacts in a season since 2004.
Hurricane Debby left at least 6 dead in the state, according to Fox Weather. Months later, Helene impacted six states, in addition to Florida, leaving 230 dead and many victims without power. Finally, NBC News pointed out that Milton left about 17 fatalities after his arrival at the Sunshine State.
