Rafael Mariano GrossiDirector General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), highlighted the dangerous path the world is following towards the possible use of nuclear weapons at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum.
He began by congratulating Nihon Hidankyō and to the hibakusha for receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, mentioning the personal experience of visiting Hiroshima and the influence that a conversation with a survivor had on his approach to the nuclear negotiations.
“The look in his eyes has stayed with me ever since, as a powerful reminder, a secret mandate, to work so that his suffering is never repeated,” Grossi said.
In the current context, the Argentine diplomat warned of the return of war to Europe and detailed the direct relationship with a nuclear state: “The conflict in Ukraine is also an indirect confrontation between the largest nuclear weapons states in the world, the first since the end of the Cold War.”
This resurgence of nuclear weaponry highlights the increased risks of conflicts where doctrines on weapons of mass destruction are being revised and arsenals increased.
“The erosion of restrictions around nuclear weapons is making these conflicts more dangerous,” Grossi said.
He IAEAwhich has played a key technical role in overseeing nuclear proliferation attempts, such as in the Middle East, is critical to understanding these challenges. Grossi emphasized the role of diplomacy saying that “Continuing to increase arsenals leads to desperation...and a growing skepticism about the value of past commitments.”
“We must be proactive in building trust and protections that reduce the risk of extreme situations”Grossi highlighted.
The danger of nuclear weapons is not limited to Europe. In the Middle East, tensions between Israel e Iran have reached unprecedented levels, and suspicions about nuclear weapons further aggravate the conflict.
“The very real potential for nuclear proliferation is raising the stakes,” Grossi noted. This is reflected in his insistence on the importance of the IAEA’s role in Iranwhere verification of the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program faces numerous challenges.
Rafael Mariano Grossi He also mentioned the importance of looking to the past where the dialogue has proven to be effective for weapons limitation. He recalled the steps taken by leaders during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the summits between Reagan y Gorbachev.
“Nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.”said Grossi, pointing out a crucial axiom agreed upon by Reagan y Gorbachev y the historic arms reduction agreements as precedents to follow. These moments underline the urgency of resuming a strategic dialogue that, according to Grossirequires the active participation of American and North Korean leaders, for example, as President Trump attempted when meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Grossi sowed hope, suggesting that a Bold and diplomatic leadership can change the current course toward effective disarmament. According to him, it is imperative “not to make things worse” by not giving in to nuclear proliferation, remembering the historical lessons of nations like Brazil y Argentinawhich abandoned their nuclear programs to establish the path towards zones free of these weapons.
“Today, Latin America is a nuclear weapons-free zone”he concluded.
This stance calls not only for leadership within nuclear-capable states, but also for international organizations to reaffirm their relevance and act decisively. Grossi appealed to members of the UN Security Council, stressing: “It is essential that the United Nations, other international organizations and their leaders work effectively to ensure they remain relevant.”
The renewal of nuclear tensions, as Grossi points out, is evident in several current conflicts. Mention that “war has returned to Europe”referring to the conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the involvement of Nuclear Weapon States. For Grossi, the “open references to the use of nuclear weapons” in this war dangerously increase global risks.
In his speech, Grossi also analyzes the situation in the Middle Eastwhere the clash between Israel and Iran has a “nuclear weapons dimension.” According to him, the perception of the “alleged presence of nuclear weapons” in the region, along with the “very real potential for nuclear proliferation,” exacerbates tensions. This understanding of regional dynamics offers a complex view of how nuclear weapons influence international relations.
At the prospect of Grossi includes an analysis of the doctrines on the use of nuclear weapons, mentioning that they are being “revising or reinterpreting”. He points out how certain leaders of “important states in their region” question the reason why they too should not possess nuclear weapons. Grossi recalls J. Robert Oppenheimer’s famous Cold War comparison: two scorpions in a bottle, each capable of killing the other but only at the risk of his own life.
Grossi made a urgent call for “diplomacy and dialogue”stressing that “excluding the other party has never solved a problem.” He cites the example of the dialogue between Kennedy and Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis as a historical milestone that demonstrated the value of direct engagement between superpowers to avoid a nuclear disaster. For Grossihistory shows us that “effective dialogue” has led on several occasions towards the limitation of arms.
In an alarmed tone, Grossi mentioned the temptation that some nations feel to arm themselves nuclearly. He points out how “current tensions” are leading leaders of countries that were previously in good standing under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to ask: “Why shouldn’t we also have a nuclear weapon?” For Grossi, such an acquisition “will not increase national security.”
He IAEAunder the direction of Grossihas played a crucial role in nuclear arms control. It highlights Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant as a critical point, creating a real risk of a “radiological incident.” In this context, Grossi pointed out the importance of “informing the world” on current developments to prevent further escalation.
Finally, Grossi pointed out the work of IAEA in Iran, stressing that it is key to verify that the country’s nuclear program is “exclusively peaceful.” The growing distrust is fueled by the difficulties that the country has imposed on the work of the IAEAand Grossi highlighted his role as an impartial mediator to propose alternatives that reduce tensions.
