Upstate New York is preparing for possible significant snowfall between Thursday, November 21 and Saturday, November 23, caused by the phenomenon known as lake effect snowaccording to the National Weather Service (NWS). This type of storm, frequent in autumn and winter, occurs when masses of cold air pass through the warm, open waters of the Great Lakesgenerating intense rainfall in nearby areas.
He Climate Prediction Center of the NWS indicated that a strong winter storm, currently developing east of the Rockieswill move towards the northeast, where it could activate these snowfalls. The phenomenon could reach its critical point towards the end of the week, affecting locations such as Tug Hill and Western New York, regions where the probabilities of significant accumulations range from 20% to 40%.
According to meteorologists, the interaction between Canada’s cold air, warm water temperatures and the storm’s winds will determine the extent of the snowfall. This phenomenon could not only cause problems in northern New York, but also complicate traffic in several regions of the northeast of the United States, coinciding with one of the weeks of greatest mobility in the Thanksgiving Day.
The lake effect snow It is generated when cold air, generally from Canada, passes over the warm, unfrozen waters of the Great Lakes. This thermal contrast causes heat and humidity to be transferred to the atmosphere, where clouds form and produce intense and localized snowfall. According to the National Weather Service (NWS)these types of storms can produce up to 7.5 cm of snow per hour in the most affected areas.
Snow bands are usually concentrated in areas to the east and southeast of the lakes, depending on the direction and intensity of the winds. This phenomenon is most common in late November and December, when the lake waters have not yet frozen, meteorologist Mike Kistner explained to Syracuse.com.
Upstate New York, particularly localities such as Tug Hill and Western New York, faces a moderate risk of significant snowfallwith a 40% probability of significant accumulations, according to the NWS. In the rest of the north of the state, the risk is lower, but not ruled out, with a 20% probability.
Furthermore, according to the FOX Forecast Centerthe impact could extend to the northeast, including areas of the Ohio Valley and the interior of the northeastern United States, depending on the path of the winds and the amount of cold air available to support the snowfall.
The phenomenon coincides with the week before Thanksgiving Dayone of the busiest travel seasons in the country. He FOX Forecast Center He highlighted that strong winds and possible snowfall could complicate road travel and air operations in regions of the Northeast and Midwest.
Buffalo and other locations in Western New York, where lake effect snowfalls are common, have already faced severe events in previous years. According to a report by The Associated PressIn November 2022, a similar storm caused accumulations of more than 60 cm in a single day, paralyzing activities in the region.
Meteorologists warn that the intensity of the lake effect snowfall It depends on several factors, such as air temperature, lake water and wind direction. According to the NWSthese events are difficult to predict accurately due to their localized nature.
Residents in affected areas are advised to stay tuned for forecast updates and prepare for winter conditions that could impact mobility and essential services. Local officials urge you to check road conditions before traveling and consider changes to travel plans if storms intensify.
