Perhaps it is not so accurate that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Beijing can cause a tsunami on the other side of the world, that is, on our side. Or perhaps it is that what flutters in Beijing, but also in kyiv, also in Moscow, also in Damascus, also in Jerusalem, also in Washington, also in Caracas – is not a butterfly but rather forces that are vying for different degrees of power in the present. .
2024 in the world. Keys to a (very) turbulent year
eBook
That, that is, what is happening on our planet and how what happens affects each country in Latin America, is about 2024 in the worldthe digital book he wrote Laureano Pérez Izquierdo and which has just been published by Leamos, Infobae’s publishing imprint. The ebook can be read for free at Bajalibros.
Every week, Laureano Pérez Izquierdodirector of Infobae Americaanalyzes issues related to the challenges faced by Western democracies. This is the axis of Pérez Izquierdo’s work. From his perspective, he promotes content that allows us to reflect broadly on the international political situation.
We live “on the edge of a great war of global magnitudeand also nuclear,” writes Pérez Izquierdo in 2024 in the worldalready looking towards 2025. In this interview, he talks about whether there is a global change that is being expressed in the different conflicts, if China It is a real danger and what is coming in 2025.
-You talk about a “convulsed” year. Beyond the cases you detail, is there any unity in what is happening? A change that is understood as global?
-There are several striking things, or not so striking, that unite the most conflictive events of the year. Those that exploded and those that keep the world in suspense, such as the case of the Taiwan Strait. In all these events, the partner states participate among themselves, what we could call a consolidated axis of autocracieswhich seeks to undermine the concept of “democracy.” They are Russia, China and Iran, above all. Moscow and Beijing reconfirmed their friendship as many times as they could during 2024. And, despite the aberrations that Vladimir Putin orders to make in Ukraine, Beijing It does nothing to contain this bloodshed. On the contrary, it is one of the Kremlin’s economic powerhouses. Iran, in addition to having attacked Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah and having launched hundreds of rockets and missiles that were intercepted, also contributed to Putin’s war with drones in exchange, apparently, for improvements in its air defense system that is far below the level of its historical enemies in the region. And Iran and Moscow, above all, helped Latin American dictatorships to sustain themselves, as is the case of Venezuela. They, and China, were among the first to congratulate Nicolás Maduro for having stolen the elections from Edmundo González Urrutia on July 28. That is, what seems to happen far away is actually closer than we think.
-Does China really represent a danger to the region? What plans do you have for the different countries?
-The Chinese regime has an expansionist plan that goes beyond its intentions to keep Taiwan or the islands that make up the first barrier to the Pacific Ocean. It is a global, hegemonic plan. But your economy is not the same as it was 10 years ago, which will make your goals difficult. But it does have Africa and Latin America as the regions where it can penetrate the most and plunder its natural wealth. Xi Jinping takes advantage of a certain institutional fragility to pressure regional governments with tempting investments. Latin American administrations do not think long term. They want immediacy, easy solutions. And China offers them that. Of course, for that, in the middle, they have to meet certain requirements: hostility and zero ties with Taiwan are one of them. Paraguay, for example, remains firm, but the pressure on its government is constant. Even a few months ago, the Taipei embassy in Asunción suffered a suspicious intrusion that should be investigated as diplomatic espionage. And an envoy from Beijing openly said that they had to break relations with the island. It’s scandalous.
-Should the fight against drug trafficking be militarized? Is it different in different countries?
-It is an eternal debate. I’m not so sure what militarizing the fight against drug trafficking means, too. Does it mean involving the military in seizures and investigations? Or does it only involve using your defense tools, your weapons, to combat them? I think that the first thing you have to have to fight against drug trafficking is functioning institutions; a judicial system that is up to par; an intelligence system that provides information; the blocking of its money laundering and financing system; blocking their interconnections with transnational crime, such as terrorist groups… It is broader than just “militarizing.”
-Is a new map of the Middle East being drawn? How will it be? Will these changes affect us in Latin America?
-Without a doubt there is already a new map in the Middle East. Iraq and Syria are clear examples of this. And the recent fall of Bashar Al Assad It is the latest sign that we are witnesses of a historical reconfiguration of that region. In a globalized world, although it may sound commonplace, everything that happens on the other side, no matter how far away, affects us as a region. From a human and economic point of view. Of course, territorial proximity influences. But just as it affected the commodities the Russian invasion of Ukraine, any extreme change in the Middle East could affect it. I also think that it is early to know what the map of the region will look like after the collapse of Damascus. There are many actors pulling on each side: Türkiye, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States… the Kurds.
-What role will Mexico play in the relationship between Latin America and the United States after Trump’s rise?
-I don’t think the president Claudia Sheinbaum make profound changes in foreign policy with respect to what happened during the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. AMLO left only once and went to the United States. I also know that the team Sheinbaum It is in permanent contact with Donald Trump and they work on immigration, security and, above all, on a very sensitive issue: fentanyl. Mexico’s challenge will be China and how it manages its relationship with Beijing. There will be a lot of dialectics, but you have to pay attention to the facts and not so much to the words.
-What will 2025 be like?
-As intense as 2024, without a doubt. We have certainties – which were previously hypotheses – on which we will no longer have to work so much: Hezbollah beheaded and wounded -almost- to death. Hamas almost disappeared or with very little operational capacity. In both cases the challenge of Israel It will be knowing how to keep them at bay, without being distracted to prevent them from rearming again. These terrorist groups cannot be resurrected… because in addition They do operate in Latin America. Iran was greatly weakened politically by these two beheadings and by the symbolic defeats it suffered against Jerusalem. I think that the two big unknowns, far from our region, will be, on the one hand, knowing how the exhausting war between Russia and Ukraine will end and whether Trump will be able to sit Putin and Volodimir Zelenzky at the same table to put an end to that conflict. On the other hand, decipher to what limit Xi will take his pressure on Taipei. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would cause an economic, and human, catastrophe of unimaginable proportions. Much greater than those of the pandemic or what happened in Ukraine. Another point to take into account will be knowing how far or how Trump will take his strategic confrontation with China.
And in Latin America?
-On the Latin American side, January is starting very busy. Edmundo González, the president legitimately elected on July 28 in Venezuela, wants to return to his country to assume his mandate on January 10. Maduro, who committed the most monumental fraud in history, has already warned that he will not allow his entry. Tension will grow these days in a country whose constitutional or procedural guarantees are null.
