The world gathers in Baku, Azerbaijanuntil November 22 for the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29)and Brazil takes the opportunity to warm up its engines for the COP30which will be held next year in Bethlehemin the state of Amazonas.
The presence of the Latin American giant in Baku this year is massiveindicating their intention to show a relay with next year’s conference. Even before COP29 began, Brazil had announced the details of its new climate change commitment, which sets a target to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. The new commitment aims to reduce emissions from 59% to 67% by 2035. Previously, Brazil had set a reduction target of 53% by 2030. In its official statement, Lula’s government stated that “This commitment will allow Brazil to move towards climate neutrality in 2050». The Latin American giant has promised to gradually replace fossil fuels in its energy matrix, but has not given details on the possible timeline.
Under the Paris AgreementThey recall that the signatory countries agreed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to allow the increase in the long-term average global surface temperature to remain well below 2 °C and to continue efforts to limit it to 1, 5°C in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. Brazil affirms that its emissions reduction goal is in line with the global objective.
However, there is no shortage of criticismlike that of Climate Observatorywhich brings together the main Brazilian and international NGOs, of which Brazil’s commitment is not ambitious enough to meet the global goal. Representing Brazil, the vice president was in Baku Geraldo Alckminwho will also chair the conference next year. In his speech, he pointed out Brazil’s environmental potential. Among them he cited the ability to offer food security, the presence of the Amazon, the energy matrix among the cleanest in the world and agriculture described as “efficient and green.” Just yesterday, the Brazilian Senate approved the bill that the Chamber will also have to vote on and that creates a carbon market. The approved text authorizes the government to set limits on greenhouse gas emissions in the country. The goal is to force companies that pollute above a certain level to pay for it.
From a COP29 in which the absences of world leaders such as Joe Biden for the United States, Emanuel Macron for France, Olaf Scholz for Germany and also members of the BRICS such as Xi Jinping for China and Narendra Modi for India stood out, Alckmin gave an appointment to 2025. «On behalf of President Lula: I hope to see you next year in Brazil“, said.
Baku is thus the bridge to what will be the COP 30 in Belém in which Brazil wants to be accredited as one of the main environmental actors in the world. Precisely at next year’s conference, the Latin American giant intends to present its still globally unknown flagship to the world. Blue Amazon. It is a maritime area of the Brazilian coast that covers 5.7 million km2 and has already been officially added to the map of Brazil by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). With it, the national territory reaches an area of 14.2 million km2, compared to the current 8.51 million km2. Although it is made up of water, it is compared to the Amazon for its size and richness in biodiversity.. According to data from the Brazilian Navy, the area is rich in innumerable mineral and natural resourcesfrom which 95% of the oil and 80% of the natural gas produced in the country are extracted. In addition, more than 95% of Brazil’s foreign trade passes through here.
But COP30 is still a year away and some issues risk having a boomerang effect in the coming months, creating problems for Brazil’s environmental image. Firstly, Lula’s approval of the oil exploitation of the so-called Equatorial Margin in the area of the mouth of the Amazon River now seems very likely. On Tuesday, the senator for the state of Amazonas Eduardo Bragaof the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), stated that the president said that “studies are being carried out and that the government will give the license for exploration in the area.” The issue has ignited debate in Brazil in recent months. On the one hand there are environmental organizations and indigenous communities, who see in the project a serious threat for the Amazon ecosystem. On the other hand, the national oil company Petrobras It has been in a tug-of-war with Ibama (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources) for months. The area where the oil well would be drilled is 500 km from the mouth of the Amazon River and about 170 km from the coast.
He Equatorial MarginRemember, it includes the entire northern coast of the country and is named for its proximity to the equator. It begins in Guyana and extends to the state of Rio Grande do Norte, in northeastern Brazil. The Brazilian Equatorial Margin is divided into five zones, one of which is the mouth of the Amazon. Despite Lula’s possible endorsement, a report from Ibama’s technical area published at the end of last September recommended that the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources not give authorization. The main criticism of Ibama engineers is that “no viable alternative has been presented to satisfactorily mitigate the loss of biodiversity in the event of an oil spill incident. “This condition is especially critical, given the important marine biodiversity and the high environmental sensitivity of the ecosystems that would be affected.” The report also warns that any authorization may have “the effect of changing not only this process, but the entire practice of environmental licensing in the country». Despite this document, on October 22, in a letter, the president of the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, Rodrigo Agostinhostated that “the progress presented by Petrobras allows the continuation of the dialogue with Ibama, for knowledge and presentation of the necessary clarifications.”
The issue of fighting deforestation may also harm Brazil’s image in the coming months. On the one hand, it is true that there is good news. Figures published in recent days by the Brazilian Space Research Institute (INPE) indicate that Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has decreased by 30.6% in the last year, reaching its lowest level since 2015with 6,288 square kilometers deforested as of July 31, 2024. This is data from the Prodes system (Satellite Monitoring Project for Legal Amazon Deforestation), which is released twice a year. Prodes mainly uses the American LANDSAT satellites, to which others are added, and that is why its data is then used by Brazil internationally.
However, as reported by the international environmental information site Mongabay«Like many countries, Brazil does not classify areas lost to fires as deforestation». The problem is that this year’s fires, also due to a severe drought, increased by 70% compared to the previous yearwith some 243,564 lights in November of this year. The fires have had an impact on deforestation throughout South America, especially in the Brazilian Pantanal and Cerrado. Furthermore, if they are repeated next year, they risk reigniting the controversy over the government’s lack of a structured plan to address climate emergencies.
Since his inauguration, President Lula has promised to create the so-called “climate authority”, a body that directs the government’s climate policies and, therefore, also necessary for the prevention of catastrophic climate phenomena, such as the floods that devastated the state. southerner of Rio Grande do Sul last May. According to the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silvathe development of the model is complex, since it requires a new legal framework. In fact, according to the newspaper The State of São Paulothe government wants the Climate Authority to report to the Ministry of the Civil House and not to the Ministry of the Environment, which is creating a clear debate and negotiations with the effect of lengthening the deadlines.
On the contrary, there is no time to waste. In the acceleration of the process of destruction of symbolic areas of Brazil such as the Amazon, organized crime plays an increasingly important role. Just a few days ago, after two years of investigation, the Brazilian Federal Police sent the Federal Public Ministry the report of its investigation into the double murder of the indigenous rights activist Bruno Pereira and the British journalist Dom Phillips. Among the nine accused is the alleged mastermind of the double murder, suspected of having links to drug trafficking. The case is an important warning about the need to act in a structured and sustained manner over time to not hand over the entire Amazon to organized crime. The Brazilian government will also have to take this into account when it welcomes the world at COP 30.
The event will be especially important because it marks ten years of the main climate pact on the planet, the Paris Agreement. It is estimated that at least 50,000 people will attend the summit. Among the authorities and their delegations, between 120 and 150 heads of state are expected. However, Belém, which has 1.3 million inhabitants, is not prepared for such a challenge, according to the Brazilian press. There are only four five-star hotels, so the local and federal governments have been talking for months about using cruise ships to increase the number of beds. But most cruise operators have already closed their routes in 2025. In addition, it would be necessary to dredge the Guajará River bed and expand terminals and facilities for smaller ships. It is then difficult not to think about the terrible spectacle that the city will show to delegates from all over the world. The capital of the state of Amazonas has the highest percentage of inhabitants in favelas in Brazil, 54%. 80% of the population lacks a wastewater collection system and only 2.4% of it is treated, the rest is dumped into the Guajará Bay. Finally, the airport does not have the capacity to accommodate the expected number of flights, and it is not known whether the investments promised to expand it will arrive in time to become a reality or will rather create other white elephants made in haste, without care, and perhaps even overbilled. , as has already been seen for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.
