Located at 470 kilometers off the Oregon coast, volcano submarine Axial Seamount, one of the best monitored in the world, could erupt in 2025, according to Science News.
This volcano, submerged 1,400 meters below sea level and with a height of 1,100 meters, has been the subject of scientific attention for years thanks to a network of devices that record real-time data on its behavior, including earthquakes, swelling of the surface and accumulation of magma.
According to Science News, This constant monitoring has made it possible to identify that the surface of Axial Seamount is now in a state similar to that which preceded its last eruption in 2015.
Historical analysis has been key to predicting your next activity. In 2015, months after continuous monitoring records began, scientists observed a pattern of swelling y seismic activity which marked the prelude to an eruption.
This event was successfully predicted by a team led by geophysicist William Chadwickwho described it as “his best forecasting success.” Recently, he and his colleagues have detected an increase in seismic activity and a new accumulation of magma that leads them to conclude that the eruption could occur in 2025.
As indicated by Daily Starthe ability to make long-term predictions of volcanic eruptions is a rare and significant achievement within the scientific field.
The Axial Seamount has been described as ““the best-instrumented underwater volcano on the planet”according to Mark Zumberge, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. This monitoring was possible thanks to an underwater cabling system that allows data to be obtained in real time.
According to Observer Voice, the aim is to identify specific signals of magma movement that could provide alerts hours in advance, considerably improving the possibilities of response to an eruption.
Although underwater volcanoes pose a lower risk to human communities compared to terrestrial ones, they are not without danger. A recent example is the case of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, whose eruption in 2022 generated a tsunami which caused damage estimated at 90 million dollars.
In this context, the researchers point out Science News, an eruption from Axial Seamount could offer valuable information about how these events affect hydrothermal systems and biological communities that inhabit the deep ocean. Volcanologist Rebecca Carey explained in dialogue with Science News that Axial provides a unique opportunity to deploy remotely operated vehicles and study in real time the impacts of an eruption on these ecosystems.
Axial Seamount’s continuous monitoring and advances in volcanic prediction have scientific implications and highlight the importance of studying volcanoes with regular behavior. According to what Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at the University, told Science News, Roma Tre Universitythe Axial is an ideal case because it has frequent eruptions that allow new hypotheses to be tested.
However, he warns that there is always the risk that a volcano follows a unexpected pattern and challenge predictions. Michael Poland, of the USGS Cascade Volcano Observatory, told the same outlet that many of the current predictions are based on historical patterns, but the future of volcanic prediction could include a deeper focus on the physics and chemistry of magmatic systems.
According to Daily Star, Although the upcoming event will not radically change the field of eruption prediction, it will provide important lessons that can be applied to other volcanoes in the future.
Technological tools, such as the use of artificial intelligence and the real time monitoring, They are the beginning of a change in how humanity observes and responds to the risks associated with these natural phenomena.
