The Uruguayans define this Sunday who will be their next president of the Republic among the ruling party Alvaro Delgado –president’s dolphin Luis Lacalle For– and the opponent Yamandú Orsi –from the leftist Wide Front–. The scenario is one of absolute uncertainty: all the polls conclude that there is a technical tie between the candidates. It is therefore expected that the next head of state will win by a very narrow margin and that the result will be known in the early hours of the morning.
Uruguay is divided into two almost equal blocks. In the October elections, Orsi was the candidate with the most votes with 44% of the votes; Delgado, meanwhile, obtained 27%. But despite the fact that the difference between the two presidential candidates is 17 points, the ruling bloc is made up of several political parties that together reach 47%.
On the same night of the October elections, Delgado gathered the rest of the candidates from the ruling bloc parties and gave a speech with them. The union of these parties –the National Party, the Colorado Party, Cabildo Abierto, the Independent Party and the Animalist Constitutionalist Party– is called Republican Coalition.
The results of the October elections leave the two blocks without an absolute majority in Parliament. And this data set the tone of the campaign towards the runoff: the candidates had to show themselves as negotiators, since they will need to get votes from outside their own blocs for the bills they intend to promote to prosper.
If he is president, Orsi would have this task somewhat easier. The Frente Amplio did obtain a majority in the Senate and to be successful in its parliamentary proposals it must obtain the votes of two deputies outside the left coalition.
The two candidates believe that they will reach agreements in the next government that will allow them to have governability. Delgado was, in this sense, the one who sent the most concrete messages to the current opposition. He said, for example, that he is willing to incorporate leaders of the Frente Amplio in some positions and assured that he would like Orsi to be part of his administration. if it succeeds.
Last week the candidates they were face to face in the only debate that occurred between them in the campaign, which is required by law. Orsi assured that what is chosen this Sunday is between continuing in a “stagnant country” and going for “a safe change.” Delgado, meanwhile, stated that the Frente Amplio model seeks to go back with “ideology and uncertainty”while its proposal seeks to ensure “guarantees, certainties, future and development.”
One of the most important points of the debate was Orsi’s promise that in his eventual government there will not be a tax increase. On this issue, the Frente Amplio has had some contradictions. The Minister of Economy appointed by the Frente Amplio, Gabriel Oddone, He assured that an increase in the tax burden cannot be ruled out.
The main Uruguayan pollsters consider that Orsi has an advantage over Delgado, but the distance is within the margin of error, which means there is a technical tie.
In Uruguay, it is tradition that at 8:30 p.m. the directors of the consulting firms announce on private television channels who will be the next president. But for this Sunday the unknown is great. Will the results of the exit polls allow us to make that announcement? At what time will it be known who is the president? Will the result be known on election night or will we have to wait for the observed votes to be counted?
At the close of the electoral ban, these three questions had no answers.
On Thursday the 21st, the pollsters presented their latest studies for the runoff and projected the undecided numbers.
The consultant Done It is the one that projects a more even scenario: 47.1% would vote for Yamandú Orsi; 46.6% to Álvaro Delgado. There would be 6.3% of blank or canceled votes.
There is a “highly competitive” scene with an “uncertain outcome” That does not mean that it will be “extremely tight,” says the consulting firm’s report.
According to studies of Cipher47% would vote for Orsi, 46.4% for Delgado and 6.6% plan to vote blank, cancel their vote or do not know what they will do. The consulting firm’s analysis ensures that a large proportion of Delgado and Orsi voters are “lazy,” which means they can change their minds at the last minute. “The election – again – will be very close, and the winner will only be confirmed when the votes are counted”says the report.
Consulting Teams concluded that the “scenario is open with a difference in favor of Orsi”, which in any case is within the margin of error of the estimates. This firm’s projections indicate that Orsi would receive 48% of the votes against Álvaro Delgado’s 46.2%, while 5.8% would vote blank or annulled. There are 7% undecided.
Consultants Option It is the firm that gives Orsi the greatest advantage (49.7% to 45.5%), but also ensures that there is a “competitive” and “uncertain” scenario. “A cautious look is required due to the margin of statistical error of the distance (which is just over four points), the existence of an electorate that is still insecure or undecided and the “double” effect that a transfer of ‘soft’ voters from one candidate to another would have.” , he expresses.
The studies by the Citizen Perception Plant project a three-point advantage for Orsi over Delgado, the same distance that the survey of The Observer and the University of the Republic.
